By Michael Newman

[email protected]

 

Hi everyone! Welcome to the 2014 Cross Country season in Illinois.

 

In the last couple of weeks, I have heard a couple of times that this was the beginning of the 2015 track season. Two weeks ago when I was at a coaches clinic, I was told that there is a new coach in the suburban area that has told his athletes that cross country was not a sport. Its only purpose was to get you ready for track and field. When I was at the Elgin City Meet on Tuesday watching my daughter run, I overheard a coach tell one of his athletes that this race was a good foundation to get them ready for the track season. A coach brought to my attention that on another media outlet the same thing was said that this was the beginning of the 2015 track season. So I started to wonder if I was in a coma for the last two months and that we were already into the indoor season.

 

I pinched myself and realized that it was still the beginning of September.

 

I was lucky to be coached in high school by Joe Newton and in college by Al Carius. The way that they tell their message to that their athletes is different. The philosophy between the two coaches remains the same. One thing that I learned is that Cross Country and Track & Field feeds each other. It’s the circle of life. The work that you do in cross country gets you ready for track. The work that you do in track progresses you for the cross country season. The two sports co-exist. It is not the same sport. I do know that there are MANY athletes that used cross country to get themselves into condition for other sports in the spring. Joe Smaga, a student-athlete from Fremd, plays Baseball and uses cross country to condition himself for the diamond. By the way, he will be one of the top runners for the Vikings this fall.

 

I am one of the many that believes that a successful cross country season will benefit you during the track season. The same thing applies with track towards cross country. It is those who fail to believe that will find themselves spinning their wheels. Go to Neuqua Valley and York. They can tell you why they are tough in both sports every year. Those that ignore the fall sport most likely will not find success in the spring. So. Welcome to the 2014 Cross Country Season in Illinois.

 

Here are a few things that I found interesting in the past week.

 

Freshmen

 

I like watching the first few meets of the year. If you look closely at a group of runners, you will be able to see who is a freshman at a meet. They will be the one that looks like a deer in headlights. During a race on Tuesday, I heard a coach yell at his runner “You can catch that runner ahead of you.” Ten yards later, the kid looks back to see if there are any runners close to them. Of course, as they were looking on the left, two runners passed them on the right.

 

A favorite quote of mine was said by the late basketball coach Al McGuire when he said: “The best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores.”

 

There are some freshmen this early in the year that are running like experienced seniors. Audrey Ernst (North HS, St. Charles) won her first high school race ever winning at the Elgin City Classic by 27 seconds ahead of all-state track runner Gabby Juarez (Streamwood HS). Jack Becker (South HS, Crystal Lake) ran 15:47 for 5k to finish fourth at the McHenry County Championships. He was one of the reasons why Crystal Lake South could be a surprise in the Fox Valley Conference and possibly on the state scene.

 

There are other runners that are making their debuts. We will keep an eye out and let you know who pops out at us.

 

Welcome to Ehof

 

If you may have noticed, I made the announcement that DyeStat Illinois would be onsite at the Aurora City Championships last Saturday. As you know by now, I was not there. Every Saturday before Labor Day, York’s alumni meet and Picnic at East End Park get together to reminisce. We also get to meet the current team.

 

Eric Hofmann was there to cover the meet at Waubonsie Valley. I am happy to have him on the DyeStat team. Eric had a successful high school career at Homewood-Flossmoor High School and then at Carleton College where he received a degree in economics. He is still in great running shape as he is in some of the local road races in the Chicago area. Eric also has a great passion and knowledge for high school running. That is why I wanted Eric on board.

 

You will see Eric at some meets this fall giving us more coverage at some of the top meets in Illinois. Not only will he be a plus to DyeStat Illinois, he will be a plus for high school running in Illinois.

 

This weekend

 

It’s always exciting to get to the first weekend of the cross country season when there are so many meets that are going on. We can look at all of the things that are said during the summer and see how close those teams are to those expectations.

 

I would be able to look at every meet going on this weekend, but I will give you a glimpse at some of the top meets being held within the state. We have already done a preview for the Hornet-Red Devil Invitational. You can read the preview for the meet here.

 

Leavey Invitational @ Leroy Oakes Forest Preserve – The Girls Varsity race should take center stage in this meet. Lauren Van Vlierbergen (Jacobs HS, Algonquin) is running strong already this season with a race in the 17:20’s for three miles last week at Downers Grove North. Torree Scull (East HS, St. Charles) and Audrey Ernst (North HS, St. Charles) should be the two runners chasing her in this race. 3A #8 Geneva and 3A #16 St. Charles East will challenge for the team championship in the Girls race. Also watch for St. Charles North, Barrington, and Batavia to also challenge. Ryan Clevenger (North HS, Downers Grove) will be the runner to beat in the Boys Varsity race. 3A #14 St. Charles East and 3A #21 Downers Grove North will challenge for the team title. #24 Marmion Military and Batavia will be two teams that will be chasing the Saints and the Trojans

 

Lions Pride Invitational @ Lyons Township South Campus – The Boys Varsity race will be the focal point in this meet. Five teams in the DS IL 3A top 25 are entered led by #2 Sandburg. #11 Lincoln-Way Central, #16 Lyons Township, and #17 Conant, and #20 Maine South will be hot on the heels of the Eagles in this meet. Zach Dale (Conant HS, Hoffman Estates) ran 14:42 last year to win this race. He will be challenged by Tommy Kolacki (Lincoln-Way Central, New Lenox), Tommy Brennen and Sean Torpy (Sandburg HS, Orland Park) in this race. In the Girls Varsity race, it could be a close battle between Valparaiso, host Lyons Township, and 2A #4 Glenbard South. Allison Mundell (Valparaiso IN) will be one of the favorites along with Maryclaire Leonard (Marist HS, Chicago), Katie Hamor (Lyons Township HS, LaGrange), Elizabeth Niedert and Caroline Arlasky (Glenbard South HS, Glen Ellyn).

 

Crystal Lake South Invitational @ Veteran Acres – The Girls team race will be a battle between 1A #1 St. Teresa, 3A #11 Cary-Grove, 3A #14 Lake Zurich, and 2A #9 Vernon Hills on the rugged terrain of Veteran Acres Park. Jenna Lutzow (North HS, Belvidere) is coming off of a win at Sycamore on Tuesday and will be one of the runners to watch. Kate Jacobs (Woodstock HS), Gabby Juarez (Streamwood HS), Vivian Overbeck (Vernon Hills HS), and Lauren Opatrny (McHenry HS) will challenge also in this race. Jesse Reiser (McHenry HS) is coming off of his nation leading 14:53 last weekend at crosstown Lippold Park. He will be back in action on Saturday as the big favorite. 3A #21 McHenry looked strong last week at their county meet and will be one of the favorites. Crystal Lake South and Grant could be McHenry’s chief challengers.

 

Granite City Invitational @ Wilson Park – 3A #7 O’Fallon and 3A #13 Edwardsville will renew their rivalry as they face off Saturday morning in the Boys Varsity race at Wilson Park. Dorrian Gordon (O’Fallon HS) should be the favorite in this race challenged by Edwardsville’s Brydon Groves-Scott. It could be a tight team battle in the Girls race with 2A teams #6 Highland, #12 Chatham-Glenwood, and #13 Springfield battling O’Fallon and Edwardsville for the team championship. The individual champ from last year’s meet Allison Zobrist (Highland HS) will be back and should be the favorite.

 

Silver Streak Invitational @ Lake Story Park, Galesburg – 2A #5 Dunlap looked impressive last Saturday with their win over 3A power Minooka at Normal West. They should be the big favorite in this meet Saturday. #15 Normal West should be their closest challenger. Dunlap’s Abby Jockisch should be the favorite in this race. The Boys race features five teams in the 2A top 25. #10 Sterling ran impressively in finishing 2^nd at Sycamore Tuesday and should push #4 Metamora for the championship. It is a good individual field with Matthew Church (East Peoria HS), Brady Carius (Morton HS), and John Mangold (Metamora HS) leading the way.

 

Chrisman Cowchip Classic – The best 1A meet of the weekend. It is a seven flight meet where runners run fast and coaches try to avoid the cow chips that have been left along the way. Defending 1A champion Anna Sophia Keller ran 17:36 last year to win the championship flight. #4 Urbana University, #5 St. Joseph-Ogden, #7 Tolono Unity are among the teams to watch in the Girls meet. Defending 1A champion Jon Davis (Oakwood HS, Fithian) will be challenged by Eric Ponder (Tuscola HS) in the Boys championship flight. #4 Tolono Unity looked extremely strong Tuesday at the Kickapoo Kickoff Classic. They should be the favorite chased by #2 St. Joseph-Ogden and #6 Monticello.

 

There are other great meets throughout Illinois this weekend. You can check the DS IL Meet Calender or see where the top 25 schools will be running this weekend here.

 

And finally…

 

When I was at the Elmhurst College Invitational last Friday, my former college teammate and now North Central College assistant Chris Wheaton asked me “How much did Newton pay you to rank York #8?” A few days later, a college friend of mine asked me if I saw what was said about the rankings on Twitter. I looked at the tweet questioning why Neuqua Valley was ranked #5 by me and was ranked #1 by Milesplit Illinois in the state and #1 by DyeStat in their regional rankings. Then yesterday on Noah Lawrence’s blog site, a runner on the Hinsdale Central made this statement: “We could very well race to uphold some ranking thought up by a former York Duke, and I believe we would run terribly with that mindset.”

 

That was enough to think a little bit about rankings. Let me just say this: I did not think up these rankings. There is a lot of thought put into this. I do not put names in a hat or look at just the returnees etc. So, let me share with you a little of the process that I go through. It may be a little different thinking but after years of doing it, I find it the most efficient in doing the rankings during the season.

 

Those who know me I am the ultimate track stat nerd. You see some of that in TFX and in the state meet previews. I would drive the IHSA crazy when they were doing the state meet using the one chute. I developed a process of where I could get the team results before they would release the final score. 99% of the time, I was dead on. Around 2003, I started trying to figure out what might happen at the state cross country meet. It took about five years to come up with the right formula on how to get the projections as close as possible. When I started to write for DyeStat and do the rankings, I used that formula. Every season after the state meet, I go back and see where I went wrong a tweak the formula that I use. You can’t predict teams going in the tank. But with the teams that are traditionally up there (Neuqua Valley, York, Palatine, O’Fallon), I have been very close.

 

My process to do the rankings is a long one. It starts sometime around Thanksgiving where I decide which schools I will need to research for the upcoming year in all three classifications for both Boys and Girls. For the 2014 season, I ended up doing research on 484 teams. It is time consuming and mind draining. After Christmas, I start transitioning to track. By mid-January, my total focus is on track. I have two binders, 1 for girls and 1 for boys, which have the stats that I need for each of the schools. Each team has its own page with stats from the meets that they ran the previous season. During the track season while covering meets, if there is something that I want to remember about an individual or about a team, I can jot it down on a team page.

 

By mid-June, I start to transition back to Cross Country. I double check notes on each of the teams. I then go through on each page I create rankings for each of the runners that I think will be in the top seven. After the rankings are created for each individual, I create six “hypothetical” state meets. Rankings are compared and figured into a state meet concept. For example in 3A Boys, I compared 101 schools. It takes close to a month to do that. I then go through each classification tabulating each team score. That takes another week. I decided this year that I would write about 70 schools in 3A for Boys and Girls, 50 for 2A, 40 for 1A.

 

The one thing that I can tell you about the process is that you cannot compare individuals and teams if they are running on different courses. Giving a course a ranking number simply does not work. I know that some sites do that. Using that the probability of accurately ranking a team slips to 63-67%. The one thing that I do concentrate on is the dynamics of the team and how they interact with each other in a race. The focus tends to go towards the end of the year when the athlete is in peak condition. Since I have done this for years, I can go back and look at the history of the team and see what their tendencies are from the beginning of the year to state series time. My accuracy level has improved the last four years where I have a good comfort level.

 

I also simply do not think you can take just track numbers and plug them into this equation. You do have to consider them, but it is true that there are some athletes that are better on the track compared to the cross country course. It helps that I get to see a ton of athletes run. That helps considerably in the process.

 

I have a list of rankings around the end of July that sets me up to send e-mails to 320 coaches. Yes, I sent out 320 e-mails. It takes two days but I can get the information that I need. This year, I received replies from 260 coaches which is quite amazing. I would like 100% but the feedback is a godsend.

 

The feedback I get from the coaches helps me move teams up and down the ladder. If an individual transfers or does not come out for cross country, I can go back and look at the team to reevaluate.

 

With all the information, I can write the previews. All this information helps me with coverage during the season.

 

The infatuation with the rankings continue into the season. I have projected top 15 rankings for each of the sectionals. I will publish the top ten’s when the IHSA releases their assignments. Each week, I can plug in the results into each week rankings page. You remember the state meet previews where I have the team’s top five runners? I feed those into a format so that by Sunday night, I can come up with the top 25 for the next week. If I see a missing runner in the top five from a school, I’ll e-mail the coach asking if something happened. It helps deciding on rankings.

 

I am a stataholic. I am driven to try to be as accurate as possible. It comes down to what I write or how I cover. In regards to the York runner remark, eyeballing who returned etc. after the state track meet, I had Neuqua Valley ahead of Hinsdale Central in 3A. But after doing my homework and getting feedback from Coach Westphal and Coach Vandersteen, you see where I see the teams RIGHT NOW. The rankings adjust with meets run every week. In my heart, I feel that my accuracy is pretty good.

 

I am a cross country fan first. It was nice to see Hinsdale Central win last fall because I could see how they developed during the year and how they ran at the state meet. Even though I am a York graduate, I know what the Hinsdale Central program is doing. They are doing it the right way. I also liked watching Neuqua Valley at Detweiller at Dark and how their pack interacted within each other. I made me wish I could still run 73 seconds 400’s for 3 miles. I admired how they run in their meets. Like Hinsdale, Neuqua is doing it the right way.

 

At this stage of my life, I am a cross country fan first. It benefits me when I write.

 

I can’t explain for the regional rankings. I do not know if Rob Monroe, who does the national rankings for DyeStat, contacted the coaches. He has a thankless job in ranking the country. Not everyone will be totally satisfied with where they are ranked. That is how I view it. I can’t control how other people think or how they figure out their rankings. I know I do it without prejudice without a hint or a clue. When I start the team ranking process in mid-July, I stay away from all the social chatter. It helps with that non-bias rankings. I know I have done the work. I can’t control if others have not. The same goes during the season. I am too busy that from Sunday to the next Friday, I am in a zone. I glimpse at the coaches poll that I publish during the week. It does not influence my thinking.

 

I hope that answers the questions. You know my motto: the only rankings that count are after the results are handed out for the state meet. There will always be opinions. I just have confidence in what I do. I am not perfect by any means. But the work I put in puts me at the confidence level where I am at now. I hope this helps you understand on how I get from the end of last season to the beginning of this one.

 

I now return to my cross country nerdom.

 

Did you see that sophomore who improved 30 seconds from last fall? I need to find out about him. It just never ends.