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National Individual Rankings - 10/24 Boys - XC - Dyestat

Published by
DyeStat.com   Oct 24th 2013, 6:07pm

NATIONAL XC TEAMS REGIONAL XC TEAMS NATIONAL XC INDIVIDUALS

 

DyeStat Individual Rankings - Top 30 Boys

2013 Release Dates: Preseason - Sept 26 - Oct 10 - Oct 24 - Nov 7 - Nov 21 - Dec 5 - Dec 19
by Doug Binder, Dyestat Editor

Haney still No. 1 heading into Mt. SAC

Top 30, Oct 24

 

1 – Blake Haney, senior, Stockdale (California): The next big test is Saturday at Mt. SAC.


 2 – Cerake Geberkidane, senior, Denver East (Colorado): The state meet favorite Saturday in Colorado.


 3 – Joe Hardy, senior, Seattle Prep (Washington): Moving toward the state meet with confidence.


4 – Estevan De La Rosa, senior, Arcadia (California): Don't count him out at Mt. SAC.


5 – Patrick Perrier, senior, O'Fallon (Illinois): Ran 14:45 to win the Southwest Conference meet.

 

6 – Aaron Templeton, senior, Hardin Valley Academy (Tennessee): Won the K.I.L. Championships in 15:26.

 
7 – Mark Hadley, senior, Boardman (Ohio): Won his league (15:06) district meet (15:24).

 
8 – Obsa Ali, senior, Richfield (Minnesota): Won his conference meet handily in 16:23.

 
9 – Steven Fahy, senior, La Costa Canyon (California): Another contender at Mt. SAC.

 
10 – Matthew Maton, junior, Summit (Oregon): Ran 14:32.7 for 5K at George Fox Classic.

 
11 – Noah Kauppila, senior, Marquette (Missouri): Won the conference meet in 15:29.3.


12 – Kai Wilmot, senior, North Central (Washington): Placed third at the Richland Invitational.


13 – Mickey Burke, senior, Rush Henrietta (New York): Placed third at Manhattan Invite Eastern States.


14 – Thomas O'Neill, senior, Middletown North (New Jersey): Ran 15:42 at Holmdel to set Monmouth Co. record.


15 – Elijah Armstrong, junior, Pocatello (Idaho): Won the Madison Invitational with 15:45.


16 – John Dressel, junior, Mt. Spokane (Washington): Ran 14:47 in a GSL three-mile race.


17 – Connor McMillan, senior, American Fork (Utah): The class of Utah after winning 5A title in 15:04.1.


18 – Levi Thomet, junior, Kodiak (Alaska): After a strong second at Geroge Fox OR, look for him at Mt. SAC.


19 – Grant Fisher, junior, Grand Blanc (Michigan): Won his conference meet in 15:37.1.


20 – Garrett Corcoran, senior, Villa Park (California): Won the Orange County Championships in 14:28 (3M).


21 – Tony Russell, senior, West Chester Henderson (Pennsylvania): Won the Manhattan Invitational Eastern States.


22 – Wolfgang Beck, senior, Gig Harbor (Washington): Ran 15:07 to win his league championship meet.


23 – Patrick Sheehan, senior, Lake Norman (North Carolina): Gearing up for a strong N.C. state meet.


24 – Ben Huffman, senior, Providence Day (North Carolina): Won his conference meet in 15:21.


25 – Alec Thomas, senior, Brentwood (Tennessee): Won Midstate Championship in 15:21.2.


26 – Sukhi Khosla, junior, Leon (Florida): Won FSU Pre-State Invitational with 14:59.5.


27 – Bryce Millar, junior, Fayetteville-Manlius (New York): Second in the Manhattan Invitational Eastern States.


28 – Taylor Caldwell, senior, Brentwood (Tennessee): Second at Midstate championship in 15:22.6.


29 – Mike Brannigan, senior, Northport (New York): Won sectional championship in 16:12.7.


30 – Louis Colson, senior, Edison (Virginia): Won the Milestat.com Invite in 15:21.0.


HM (in no particular order): Nicholas Elswick OH; Kyle Levermore NJ; Liam Mullett NJ; Olin Hacker WI, Sydney Gidabuday CA, Addison DeHaven SD, Austin Tamagno CA, Kramer Morton UT, Brian Cook NY, Stuart McNutt KS, Zack Snider IN, Austen Dalquist TX, Josef Holt-Andrews ME, Mac Macoy AL; Conner Mantz UT; Clayson Shumway UT; Marco Pompilj NY, Zach Smith IL.



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19 comment(s)
 Bsarno1
Has anyone ever devised speed ratings for the most used XC courses...maybe one in each state/two in Calif. and NY etc. Could use busiest Course as base point. obviously these are mythical ratings just for talk. But with all these fast times popping up now, how do you compare Baxter's 16:11on a 3 mile but hilly course starting on pavement with times being run at other major meets. Someone did a good comparison, for example between Ocean County Park and Holmdel in N.J. A weather deviation could also be thrown in the mix.altitude also could be factored into the equation. Notice there are speed ratings given for some results in NY State on Armory track but do not know the formulation.
The country is getting "smaller" than it was in 1976 in terms of awareness of what runners are doing everywhere and competitors from many states will venture outside their state now.
Just want to enhance dialogue and global awareness for a sport which re hires a lot of work and commitment versus recognition and public perception.
.
DougB
I think Cerake may be on his way up to No. 1.
SteveU
The Mt. SAC results have to juggle things for sure. I'm still catching up on Mt. SAC full stories ... anyone read what happened to Haney, if he was sick or anything? Not that he ran horribly, but certainly a bit off. Wonder if all of the major races, plus his mid-summer track racing, caught up with him a bit.
Sean O'Day
Cerake 15:48 on possibly the most difficult state meet course in the country. Crazy.

Cranny 18:07, Gregory 18:36, Eva Lou Edwards from Bayfield 18:41, Rainsberger 18:47, Colter....bad day, 20:43.
Chris Nickinson
So I'm thinking Austin Tamagno moves up, ya Doug?
DougB

Bill Meylan, on , said:

I have the Boy's New Jersey Shore Conference Champ race (at Ocean County Park) running 63 seconds faster than the boy's races at the Shore Coaches Invitational (at Holmdel Park) .... Therefore, Mike McClemens' winning time at the Conference Champ (14:42.34) is equivalent to 15:45 at Holmdel Park, which was the winning time by Mike Brannigan (Northport), who is currently 29th on the list above, at the Coaches Invite.


Thank you for that analysis. And thank you for your work on tullyrunners.com ... I'd be lost on NY/NJ without it.
watchout

DontStopPre, on , said:

Not a bad place to be, 3-7 seconds behind Hardy, Dressel, and Wilmot. Tanner Anderson would be in my top 25.


Indeed. He pushed Dressel pretty good at their league meet on Wednesday (14:47-14:50 at Audubon, which ranks pretty highly all-time - I think the course record is 14:44? going off memory though)

Best duo in the nation, since Henderson's Barchet hasn't exactly been running as well as he as last year, is probably either North Central (who I'd give a slight edge to), American Fork, or Fayetteville-Manlius. Don't forget, FM's duo were the #2-5 scorers at Manhattan; CBA's finished #7 and #9.

Best #7 in the nation, though, is either CBA or possibly American Fork. CBA's strength is their depth.

EDIT: Quick check shows this, roughly, for Audubon's bests over the last few years -

1. Kai Wilmot 14:44 (2012)
2. John Dressel 14:47 (2013)
3. Tanner Anderson 14:50 (2013)
4. Nathan Weitz 14:5x?? (2011 ... don't remember what his time was, somewhere around Gardner's)
5. Andrew Gardner 14:57 (2011)
6. Anthony Armstrong 15:07 (2011)

previous course record was around 15:10 I think? and this is a course that's been around the GSL for quite a while. All the above were All-Americans.
DontStopPre

DougB, on , said:

That's a fair point about Tanner Anderson. He's very good. But 4th at Richland and 6th at Bob Firman puts him consistently behind the Wilmot-Dressel duo in the biggest meets. I think if I listed an additional 10 guys, he'd be there.


Not a bad place to be, 3-7 seconds behind Hardy, Dressel, and Wilmot. Tanner Anderson would be in my top 25.
Bill Meylan

Joe Lanzalotto, on , said:

The course couldn't be flatter with no tough turns and little or nothing in the way of tough terrain unless the grass was long which is doubtful. By way of comparison, I saw Craig Forys go 15:05 there in 2006 after he went by the accepted mile mark in 4:35.


I have the Boy's New Jersey Shore Conference Champ race (at Ocean County Park) running 63 seconds faster than the boy's races at the Shore Coaches Invitational (at Holmdel Park) .... Therefore, Mike McClemens' winning time at the Conference Champ (14:42.34) is equivalent to 15:45 at Holmdel Park, which was the winning time by Mike Brannigan (Northport), who is currently 29th on the list above, at the Coaches Invite.
DougB
That's a fair point about Tanner Anderson. He's very good. But 4th at Richland and 6th at Bob Firman puts him consistently behind the Wilmot-Dressel duo in the biggest meets. I think if I listed an additional 10 guys, he'd be there.
RunSpokane
Bsarno, I would give the best 1-2 in the nation to either North Central (WA). They have Kai Wilmot (#12) and Tanner Anderson, who is usually just a few seconds back from Kai or John Dressel (#16).

Btw Doug, why is Tanner not mentioned as either in the top 25 or as an honorable mention. He seems to only be a few seconds back from ranked runners (At Richland Invite, he was 7 seconds back from Joe HArdy (#3), 5 seconds from Dressel, and 2 or 3 back from Wilmot).

I would agree with CBA having the top 7th runner in the nation.
Joe Lanzalotto
The course couldn't be flatter with no tough turns and little or nothing in the way of tough terrain unless the grass was long which is doubtful. By way of comparison, I saw Craig Forys go 15:05 there in 2006 after he went by the accepted mile mark in 4:35.
Bsarno1

DougB, on , said:

I love the debate over rankings and I absolutely stand by mine. I think they are getting increasingly dialed in with each release. So I welcome any of the questions.

That Shore Conference meet ... I'm not sure what to make of it just yet. Four guys under 15 minutes on a course where there has never been one before? A 15:41 win in the JV race? That is clearly a very fast course but I will assume it is labeled correctly at 5K and take those results into account. The fact that O'Neill was beaten by McClellan and Ferro is a little surprising to me, to be honest. And I will definitely take that into consideration for the next round of rankings. When I did my preseason top 100 I think I had three CBA guys in the top 100. Cracking the top 30 isn't easy but I will definitely take a close look at those top CBA guys between now and then.

When I said I hope I have the athletes "pegged "near" the right spots" I didn't mean to suggest that I do it haphazardly. I try to locate all of the best performances and adjust the previous list accordingly. I don't apply all of the mathematical metrics that Watchout uses for the team rankings. I definitely go a bit more by feel than he does and rely on my experience and good sense to come up with a list that I can publish and defend.

If someone has a different idea of that the top 10 or 20 (or whatever) looks like, feel free to post that list and we'll keep talking about it.

According to Star Ledger, the course is flat and the CBA runners saw an opportunity to hit some fast times. Still they shattered the record and the race was hailed as the fastest in state history.
Scarier was the JV race where CBA had the first 15 finishers. Need to check next race to see how these performances stack up.
DougB
I love the debate over rankings and I absolutely stand by mine. I think they are getting increasingly dialed in with each release. So I welcome any of the questions.

That Shore Conference meet ... I'm not sure what to make of it just yet. Four guys under 15 minutes on a course where there has never been one before? A 15:41 win in the JV race? That is clearly a very fast course but I will assume it is labeled correctly at 5K and take those results into account. The fact that O'Neill was beaten by McClellan and Ferro is a little surprising to me, to be honest. And I will definitely take that into consideration for the next round of rankings. When I did my preseason top 100 I think I had three CBA guys in the top 100. Cracking the top 30 isn't easy but I will definitely take a close look at those top CBA guys between now and then.

When I said I hope I have the athletes "pegged "near" the right spots" I didn't mean to suggest that I do it haphazardly. I try to locate all of the best performances and adjust the previous list accordingly. I don't apply all of the mathematical metrics that Watchout uses for the team rankings. I definitely go a bit more by feel than he does and rely on my experience and good sense to come up with a list that I can publish and defend.

If someone has a different idea of what the top 10 or 20 (or whatever) looks like, feel free to post that list and we'll keep talking about it.
Bsarno1
Shore Conference meet in NJ poses new challenges for individual rankings.CBA really turned things up a notch and raised the question of who has the best 1-2 in the nation as well as who has the best seven.
O'Neill ran a sub 15 at Ocean County Park...and finished fourth.
Winner, McClemens, and runner up Dylan Tarpey of Freehold Township are both 4:14 milers.
CBA's no.2. today, Blaise Ferro, also was excellent.
There is a lot of racing left, but the top 2and maybe Top three, should be in the top 50 mix.
Good luck...the serious racing has started in the Northeast!
SteveU
In some ways, I liken it to Top 25 rankings for college FB and BB. Because a team outside the top 25 (like Russell) beats someone pretty high (like Burke), doesn't mean they go all the way ahead of them. Now, I strongly suspect if Russell backs it up another time or two -- not necessarily beating Burke but showing he's a major performer again in a major meet like state or others -- he'll move up pretty quick.
dkap

DougB, on , said:

Hopefully everybody on the lists feels recognized for their efforts and has been pegged "near" the right spots!


Maybe in the future there will be some panel-like rankings where the order is based by average votes, and it also shows high-low ranges for each athlete to address that difficult aspect?

Dan
DougB
Russell did beat Burke by four seconds at Manhattan.

So I dropped Burke back a few spots and Russell, who was not ranked previously, goes into the rankings this week at 21.

Thomas O'Neill was sixth at Manhattan and he's still there at 14.

While Manhattan is important, I can't let that one race dictate the order. The fact that it's also shorter is one of the reasons why. Are you sure Burke wouldn't have covered those four seconds in the next 6/10ths of a mile? Doesn't this course tilt the advantages to those who have speed more than endurance?

I can't overlook that Burke broke a pretty good course record at the McQuaid Invite or that I still think he's probably the top guy in New York. Or that O'Neill ran a pretty strong 15:42 at Holmdel recently.

I can also say that in a situation like the guys from Spokane, Washington -- where Kai Wilmot and John Dressel have been in the same race several times -- I don't have a good handle on who's better. Maybe I'm placing too much emphasis on Wilmot's win at Bob Firman. Dressel beat him at Richland.

Hopefully everybody on the lists feels recognized for their efforts and has been pegged "near" the right spots!
Bsarno1
Curious....it is hard to rank kids who do not race each other...however Russell beat Burke handily at Manhattan and I doubt extra kilometer would have altered the result.
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